AFL Preview: Round 19
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Gary Ablett returns from injury as the Cats take on the struggling Demons (Getty Images: Mark Dadswell, file photo)
There are plenty of milestones coming up as the AFL heads into the final four rounds of the season. Andrew McLeod plays his 300th match for the Crows, while the Saints will be keen to record a win after the retirement announcement of evergreen Robert Harvey.
The real races for ladder position are centred around eight and four. With the finish line in sight seventh place could easily become fourth and 12th could end up sneaking a spot in the finals.
Melbourne Demons v Geelong Cats: MCG, Friday 7:05pm AEST
The big news for this one-sided contest is the long-awaited return of Gary Ablett for the Cats. An ankle injury has kept him sidelined for three matches, and considering the performances turned in by Geelong in his absence the Demons - and the rest of the competition - have reason to be worried. Ablett is still a joint-favourite for the Brownlow medal despite his time in on the sideline and he joins a midfield that has dominated its opponents in recent times.
Melbourne has made a few changes to its line-up as well, with defender Nathan Carroll returning alongisde James Frawley and Nathan Jones. Since the surprise win over Brisbane just over a month ago the Demons have slumped back to a four-game losing streak, and that is almost certain to continue this week. Expect the Cats to strengthen its already imposing percentage and wrap up top spot. Heavy rain forecast for Melbourne on Friday evening could provide the only assistance for the Demons.
*Nic's tip: Cats by eight goals.
Carlton Blues v Port Adelaide Power: Docklands, Saturday 2:10pm AEST
A narrow loss to the Crows last week dealt a blow to Carlton's slender finals aspirations, but other results have meant the Blues are still just a win outside the top eight. The visiting Power present a real chance for a win, particularly with the visitors making three unforced changes following their loss to the Saints last week.
Peter Burgoyne, Damon White and Troy Chaplin come back into the side for the Power, with Brendon Lade left on the emergency bench. Carlton will gamble on the fitness of Eddie Betts's hamstring as he is left in the side. The young Carlton side has plenty to play for and should prevail against the unsettled Port Adelaide.
*Nic's tip: Blues by three goals.
Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks: York Park, Saturday 2:10pm AEST
This should provide the Hawks with a regulation opportunity to keep in touch or possibly overhaul the Bulldogs in second place. Brisbane has failed to capitalise on its promise from the first half of the season, losing winnable games and throwing away strong positions. The revolving door continues to work overtime at the fringes of selection for the Lions with Anthony Corrie, Scott Clouston and Mitch Clark (quad strain) making way for Lachlan Henderson, Tim Notting and James Hawksley.
The Hawks are unchanged after their thumping 54-point win over the Magpies last week, and travel to their favoured hunting ground at York Park. Wintry conditions should only add to the home-ground advantage as the Lions make the long trip south from the Sunshine State.
*Nic's tip: Hawks by seven goals.
Collingwood Magpies v Saint Kilda Saints: MCG, Saturday 7:10pm AEST
A tumultuous week off the field for the Magpies will have surely rattled the side, which faces a tough last four rounds in its quest to play finals football. The biggest story in AFL this week has forced the omission of Alan Didak and Heath Shaw through suspensions. Shane O'Bree is out injured while Sharrod Wellingham and Ryan Lonie have been omitted. The raft of changes has tipped the balance in favour of the Saints in what was looking like a very tight match.
St Kilda will also have plenty to play for after the announcement of veteran Robert Harvey's retirement mid-week. He signalled his intentions to play in one last grand final, and a win this weekend would most likely open up breathing space between the Saints and their nearest rivals. Luke Ball is the notable loss for the Saints after his hamstring injury last week.
*Nic's tip: Saints by two goals.
Sydney Swans v Fremantle Dockers: SCG, Saturday 7:10pm AEST
Sydney coach Paul Roos will surely be relieved to host Fremantle, after his side slumped to two straight losses. Another relief will be the return of Adam Goodes and Leo Barry to his side, which is in danger of losing its grip on fourth spot on the ladder. North Melbourne is nipping at its heels in the race for a finals second chance and the last four rounds will be crucial.
Fremantle heads to Sydney having made a couple of significant changes with Jeff Farmer suspended and Ryan Murphy omitted. But three wins on the trot will give the Dockers some confidence on their road trip, and an upset result could be on the cards.
*Nic's tip: Swans by four goals.
North Melbourne Kangaroos v Western Bulldogs: Docklands, Sunday 1:10pm AEST
There is still a very real chance for the Kangaroos to finish in the top four, but with Collingwood and Adelaide breathing down their necks a win is essentially a must as missing the finals is equally on the cards. Forward Nathan Thompson makes his return for North Melbourne after being demoted in round 15, alongside skipper Adam Simpson.
Andrejs Everitt and Josh Hill make way for Tim Calland and three-gamer Callen Ward for the Bulldogs, who are looking for a second consecutive win after a mini slump in rounds 16 and 17. A win will see them hold on to second spot in the all-important race for a home final in the first week of the finals. The Bulldogs went down by just three points last time these two sides met.
*Nic's tip: Kangaroos by a goal.
Adelaide Crows v Richmond Tigers: Football Park, Sunday 2:40pm ACST
A battered Crows outfit will welcome the Tigers to Football Park in a crucial encounter for both sides. Adelaide has been forced into two changes with Jason Porplyzia suffering from bruising to the brain and Chris Knights out with a hamstring injury. A win could see the Crows consolidate a position in the eight, and with the Bombers, Saints and the Bulldogs to come a loss could turn out to be costly.
The 11th-placed Tigers face Hawthorn next week, so a win in Adelaide is almost vital if there is to be any chance of playing in September. Richmond had a win at Football Park earlier in the season but that was against the out-of-sorts Power, and the thumping they suffered at the hands of Adelaide in round 11 is recent enough to have left a scar.
*Nic's tip: Crows by four goals.
West Coast Eagles v Essendon Bombers: Subiaco, Sunday 2:40pm AWST
The Bombers have been in exciting form lately and a finals spot is still a slim possibility. With three Docklands matches rounding out the season coach Matthew Knights will be desperate for his side to produce some more form on the road this weekend. Essendon's chances have been struck a blow with the loss of Kyle Reimers and Damien Peverill through injury.
The Eagles play their second last home game of the season and with matches against the Hawks and Cats around the corner, chances for wins are running out. A horror season continues with injuries to Brent Staker and Brad Ebert, weakening a side that has only managed three wins for the season. The West Coast will have to work hard against an Essendon side with plenty to play for.
*Nic's tip: Bombers by three goals.
